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Scott Werdebaugh's Week 7
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Review Week: 1,
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
7,
8,
9,
10,
11,
12
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This is the time of the season when contenders begin to separate themselves from the pretenders. All of the early season creampuffs are out of the way and league games take center stage as teams vie for conference titles. Some teams have surprisingly already been eliminated from conference crowns such as Michigan and Oklahoma. This week separates the pack even more as college football welcomes “Elimination Week”.
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There are multiple games scheduled this weekend that will knock teams out of conference title contention and thus separate the pretenders from the contenders. We begin our journey with two Big East teams still in the race for the conference title. No, not Louisville at WVU, but surprising South Florida at disappointing Pitt(iful). Believe it or not, but these two teams still have a shot at the conference crown. USF is tied for first place and yes, Pitt(iful) still has a shot….on paper…..at the league title.
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Straight Up
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Vs. Spread
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Last Week’s Record:
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14-6
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9-11
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Overall Record:
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108-25
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65-57-1
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Big East Games
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South Florida (+2½) at Pitt(iful) The Panthers finally defeated a Division I-A school for the first time this season as they down Cincinnati 38-20. Don’t let the score fool you. The Kittens returned a punt for a touchdown and blocked a punt at the UC six yard line to set up another score as this game was by no means an impressive performance…by either team. The South Florida Bulls trot into Heinz Field this weekend looking to knock Pitt(iful) down another notch in the Big East standings. USF has a very athletic and fast defense that held powerful Louisville to just 17 points and followed that up by allowing just 27 points at Miami (Fla.) the following week, 17 of which were set up by three first quarter turnovers. Pitt(iful) QB Tyler Palko could be in for a rough afternoon against this physical defense as his offensive line is as porous as the levies in New Orleans. It should also be noted that USF beat the Kittens during the 2001 season in Pittsburgh. This game will come down to whoever is able to impose their will on the other team as Pitt(iful)’s strength is passing while the Bulls is running the football. Let’s give the edge to South Florida as they have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. In a low scoring game, South Florida shines brightly over Pitt(ifuls) doom and gloom as the Bulls trample the Kittens….
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South Florida 17 Pitt(iful) 10
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Rutgers (+2) at Syracuse Both teams are coming off disappointing loses to conference foes WVU and UConn respectively. Orange quarterbacks were squeezed hard against UConn as they passed for just 125 yards with two interceptions. Thus, the Huskies were able to keep the Orange defense on the field as UConn had more than a ten minute time of possession advantage. The Scarlet Knights were not much better as WVU raced to a 21-0 first half lead and left the Knights battered and bruised. Syracuse usually plays much better in the Carrier Dome, but Rutgers has the better team. The Knights slice the Orange….
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Rutgers 27 Syracuse 20
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UConn (-8) at Cincinnati As Lynrd Skynrd once sang “Oooh That Smell. Can’t ya smell that smell!” Little did we know they were singing about the 2005 edition of the Cincinnati Bearcats. There aren’t too many teams that can get beat by Pitt(iful) by 18 points this year. On the other hand, UConn proved that they have a solid defense to accompany their productive running game as they dismantled Syracuse last Friday night. Unfortunately for the Huskies, they lost their starting quarterback for the season in that game, however they didn’t seem to miss a beat as second stringer D.J. Hernandez filled in admirably. Cincinnati is still struggling mightily with freshman quarterback Dustin Grutz and have yet to find their offensive identity, well, other than it being offensive to their own fans. The Huskies pull away from the ‘Cats……….
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UConn 27 Cincinnati 10
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Biggest East Game of the Week
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#19 Louisville (-7) at #26 West Virginia It’s here! The game everyone had circled on their calendar when the schedule was released: Louisville at WVU. Was Louisville’s game against South Florida an aberration or does Louisville not play well away from Papa John’s Stadium? One thing is for sure, this team is an offensive juggernaut! Even in their 45-14 loss to USF, the Cardinals racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense. Untimely penalties, turnovers and poor special teams play led to Louisville’s demise, but in no manner did the Bulls stop Louisville. What the U of L did this past Saturday was almost unimaginable as they obliterated North Carolina 69-14!!! To put this into perspective, WVU has scored 64 points combined over their last three games. The 69 points were the most points EVER scored against a UNC team and this year UNC played Georgia Tech close and defeated N.C. State. Meanwhile, WVU put in a yeoman’s effort in the rain against Rutgers defeating the Scarlet Knights 27-14. But it was a costly game as the Mountaineers will definitely be without RB Jason Gwaltney and DL Ernest Hunter this weekend while cornerback’s Anthony Mims and Antonio Lewis remain questionable for the Louisville game. While these injuries will certainly hurt the Mountaineers this weekend,
all is not lost. WVU has developed depth at each of these positions over the past few years and many young players have had the opportunity to gain valuable game experience. The keys to success for the ‘Eers are as follows:
A ball controlled offense to keep Louisville’s offense off of the field.
On offense, stretch the field vertically to keep eight men out of the box. The ball has to be thrown deep a few times.
Block All-American defensive end Elvis Dumervil. Do not let him take over this game.
Solid tackling! Since the Maryland game, too many players are trying to come up with “slobber knocker” hits instead of the sure tackling we saw in the first two games.
WVU MUST get pressure up the middle, even if they don’t get sacks, to take away
Brian Brohm’s passing lanes. This was sorely missed in the Virginia Tech game and was one of the major reasons Marcus Vick completed so many third down plays.
Eliminate big plays from the Louisville offense. Make them work for their yards.
Win the special teams battle and the battle of hidden yardage. The ‘Eers must make Louisville drive long distances while getting good returns themselves to create a shorter field for the West Virginia offense.
Do enough to keep the home crowd in the ballgame through the fourth quarter!
Have a +2 turnover margin.
Create at least two big plays, 40 yards or more, on offense.
Be disciplined and keep the penalty yardage under 40 yards.
This is the game that can launch WVU back into national prominence and give this young team the belief that they can play with just about anybody in the country….and WIN! Louisville will quickly become our main rival in the Big East and the birth of the rivalry began last spring during March Madness when the Cards came back to rip the heart out of every Mountaineer and earn a trip to the Final Four. It’s time for a payback! It’s time for the Mountaineers to get a bounce their way and WIN a big game. Playing well in these types of games isn’t good enough anymore. If we want respect, we have to earn it now! The crowd needs to bring that electricity with them that was evident in historical WVU home games such as the 1984 Boston College and Penn State games, the 1993 Miami game, and the 2003 Virginia Tech and Pitt games. Let’s take this team to the next level and set ourselves up for a MAJOR New Year’s Day Bowl!!! Where else would you rather spend your New Year’s than in Miami Beach getting ready for the Orange Bowl?! The motto for every Mountaineer this weekend should simply be this:
Bring It on Saturday!!!
Editor's note: for superstition and various other purposes, no "pick" will be provided on this game. Go Mountaineers!
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Louisville 0 West Virginia 0 (at the start of the game)
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Top 25
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#1 USC at #9 Notre Dame (+11½) This very well could be the “Game of the Year”, at least on the offensive side of the ball for both teams. USC has proven to be extremely explosive and while Notre Dame may not have as great of athletes, Charlie Weis’ scheming has made them almost as productive. Weis and Pete Carroll have both instilled the confidence and a “no quit” attitude in their teams which has been displayed earlier this season. Notre Dame battled back from a 21 point second half deficit only to fall short to Michigan State in their only loss of the season while the Trojans have stormed back during the second halves of their past two road victories to defeat Oregon and Arizona State. USC may not want to fall behind in this game because Weis and the Fighting Irish will continue to score on the somewhat suspect Trojan defense. USC’s defense has struggled against teams that are multi-dimensional and Notre Dame certainly falls into that category. While the national media will focus on Leinhart, Bush, Quinn and Walker, this game may just come down to which team’s field goal kicker can best handle pressure kicks. Over the past three seasons USC has had only three games that were decided by three points or less and the last one was 15 games ago. If this shootout comes down to the final play, can Trojan kicker Mario Danelo handle the pressure? He won’t have to as the Trojan horse gets into the endzone one more time than Touchdown Jesus……
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USC 41 Notre Dame 34
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#24 Colorado (+18½) at #2 Texas The Longhorns finally put an end to their six year drought against Oklahoma, but need this game desperately to earn valuable BCS points. If the season were to end today, Virginia Tech, not Texas, would be playing USC in the national championship game. However, Colorado will not be a pushover as the Buffs have only dropped one game this year, a 23-3 setback at Miami (Fla) three weeks ago. CU pounded Texas A&M 41-20 last week in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated. Texas in the most talented of the two clubs, but it will be difficult for the ‘Horns to get emotionally revved up two weeks in a row. Vince Young ‘steers’ the Longhorns to victory…….
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Texas 34 Colorado 17
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#4 Florida State (-7) at Virginia The Seminoles first ACC loss came at the hands of the Cavaliers in Charlottesville back in 1995. However, the Cavs haven’t defeated FSU since then and have dropped the past nine games with only one of the victory margins being within a touchdown. Last year was supposed to be UVA’s year to leapfrog Florida State in the ACC, but the ‘Noles soundly defeated Virginia 36-3 in Tallahassee and began the Cavs downward spiral throughout the rest of their season. They would love to return the favor this year ,but Bobby Bowden’s warriors look like they will run that win streak to 10 straight over UVA this year as the ‘Noles defense is outstanding and quarterback Charlie Weatherford seems to be improving by leaps and bounds every game. UVA looked to be a contender for the ACC title and were ranked in the Top 25 only three weeks ago, but consecutive losses on the road to Maryland and Boston College have the Cavaliers questioning themselves. That’s not a good sign as FSU is on a roll and will not overlook Virginia as the next opponent on the Seminoles schedule is Duke. In front of a national viewing audience on ESPN, the ‘Noles tomahawk the Cavaliers………
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Florida State 30 Virginia 17
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#5 Georgia (-15) at Vanderbilt This game is a battle of teams headed in opposite directions. Two weeks ago, both teams were undefeated and looking to make waves in the college football landscape. Fast forward to today and only Georgia seems to be headed for greener pastures as they remain undefeated having secured a victory at Tennessee last week. Vandy hasn’t been as fortunate as they were upset by Middle Tennessee two weeks ago and lost a tough battle against LSU last weekend. Some things just never change as these teams continue to head in opposite directions as the ‘Dawgs bury the Commodores………
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Georgia 38 Vanderbilt 20
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#6 Alabama (-12) at Mississippi Mike Shula has brought about a resurgence in Alabama football that fans have been craving since Gene Stallings retired. The Tide are 5-0 and are tied for the SEC West Division with state rival Auburn. If both schools continue their successes, they will determine the division title in the “Iron Bowl” played on November 19th at Auburn. However, that’s a long way off and ‘Bama has had two weeks to prepare for the Ole Miss Rebels and for life without star wide receiver Tyrone Prothro. Prothro broke his leg in two places during the Tide’s rout of Florida and he will be sorely missed the rest of this season. Ole Miss has stayed relatively healthy this year, but the Rebels are going through some growing pains under new head coach Ed Orgeron. The Rebels come into this game having struggled to beat
I-AA Citadel last week in Oxford and also have lost to non-traditional powers Vanderbilt and Wyoming this season. The Crimson Tide have a big game next week as they will host Tennessee, but ‘Bama will be well-prepared for this week’s game and will chalk up the victory this weekend as the Tide rolls the Rebels…….
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Alabama 34 Ole Miss 13
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#7 Miami (Fla) at Temple (+40½) The only thing in doubt about this game is whether or not there will be any witnesses for this Miami victory. It’s hard to believe that a Division I-A football team can only draw 3,000 people for a football game, albeit this won’t be much of a game. The Owls have been defeated by an average score of 49-10 this year, but their average margin of defeat at home is only 33-13. Miami will win by more than that, but look for Larry Coker to play many of his subs early and try to keep his team healthy heading down the stretch for conference play. The ‘Canes whip the Owls into a frenzy….
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Miami 42 Temple 3
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#8 Penn State (+3½) at Michigan Wow! When was the last time Penn State came into this game ranked and Michigan unranked? Michigan was ranked #4 in the pre-season and certainly has not lived up to expectations this year dropping games to Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Minnesota; two of which were at the Big House. The last time the Wolverines were backed into a corner, they fought ferociously and defeated then #10 Michigan State in overtime. JoePa is the toast of the town again in State College as the Nittany Lion faithful were rockin’ and rollin’ last weekend in their victory over Ohio State. Michael Robinson has matured as a quarterback and Penn State has most certainly upgraded their team speed. However, there’s a house party, a Big House Party this weekend in Ann Arbor and the Nittany Lions bubble gets burst as the Wolverines snip the Lions……
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Michigan 24 Penn State 23
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#11 Florida (+6) at #10 LSU The last time Florida played a ranked team Alabama routed them 31-3 in Tuscaloosa and the fallout was evident last week as the Gators played lethargically in their win over Mississippi State. Conversely, LSU has rebounded well from a tough loss against Tennessee to win their last two games and has put them back in the SEC West race. Florida needs this game to remain one game back of SEC East leading Georgia whom they play in two weeks. This is LSU’s first home game since their loss to Tennessee and look for them to have learned their lesson from that game. Gator QB Chris Leak still hasn’t been able to fully grasp Urban Meyer’s new offense and is playing a step slow, while Tiger QB JaMarcus Russell seems to be feeling very comfortable in Les Miles’ new offense. The running game will be the difference in this game as the Tigers and RB Joseph Addai have the edge over the Gators as the Bengal Tigers gnaw on the Gators……….
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LSU 17 Florida 14
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#12 UCLA (-6½) at Washington State Is this the year that all of the traditional powers return to form? Penn State, Notre Dame, Alabama and now UCLA have returned to national prominence. Karl Dorrell’s squad stole one last weekend against Cal in the Rose Bowl. All Cal needed was first down and they would win the game. Cal came up a half yard short at the UCLA 45 on third down and decided to punt. That decision would come back to haunt Jeff Tedford and the Bears as Bruin QB Drew Olson and RB Maurice Jones-Drew led the Bruins down the field to score the winning touchdown with 33 seconds left in the game to keep UCLA undefeated. Now the Bruins travel to Pullman looking to snap a four game losing streak to Washington State. The Cougars have struggled this year and come into this game with an 0-2 conference record. If UCLA wasn’t coming off of such an emotional win, the Bruins would defeat the Cougars soundly. However, we all know that emotion plays a large role in college football and that it is difficult to “get up” two weeks in a row, especially against a lesser opponent. It won’t be pretty, but the Bruins don’t plan to go into hibernation anytime soon…
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UCLA 41 Washington State 21
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Kansas State at #13 Texas Tech (-13½) If you missed the end of Tech’s game at Nebraska last weekend you missed a fantastic finish! QB Cody Hodges threw a touchdown pass to WR Joel Filani on fourth and two from the Nebraska 10 yard line with 12 seconds left in the game to propel the Red Raiders to victory and remain undefeated. Tech started the game strong by jumping out to a 21-0 first half lead, but fell behind in the fourth quarter until Filani’s last catch. Kansas State outlasted Kansas 12-3 last weekend, but this is not the type of Kansas State team we have come to expect from Bill Snyder. However, this is a major ‘tweener game for the Red Raiders as they travel to Austin next week to battle the #2 ranked Longhorns. Tech is known for winning big at home under coach Mike Leach’s regime, but most of their games are played in the evening and this game is schedule for 11:00am CST. With the Longhorns ahead and the ‘Huskers behind, Tech will be going through the motions and be happy to squeak out a win before heading to Austin. The Red Raiders slay the Wildcats…
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Texas Tech 30 Kansas State 17
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Wake Forest at #14 Boston College (-14) BC seems to be making a smooth transition into the ACC this year as the only blemish on their record is a gut wrenching loss to Florida State.
Wake Forest may only have a 2-4 record, but they play extremely hard and if you let them hang around they will beat you. Clemson and Tommy Bowden found out the hard way a few weeks ago. The Demon Deacons upset the Eagles last year in Winston-Salem so don’t look for BC to look ahead to their next game against Virginia Tech. Eagle QB Quinton Porter returned from injury last week to lead his team to an impressive victory over Virginia and is hoping to do the same this weekend. Wake’s offensive strength is running the football and they will look to do so with RB Chris Barclay. That will be difficult to do as BC only allows 70 yards rushing per game. If the Demon Deacons have to rely on the pass, look for All-American DE Mathias Kiwanuka to have big stat day as he will be harassing Wake quarterbacks all day.
Boston College won’t get caught in the Wake……….
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Boston College 35 Wake Forest 20
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#16 Michigan State (+6½) at #15 Ohio State Buckeyes fans must be crying the blues about how their team was cheated out of another win last week. If you’ve ever resided in the Columbus area, you soon learn that the OSU football team never loses; somehow they are always robbed of a victory. Talk of a possible national championship has turned into two loses in their first five games and now the Spartans of Michigan State gallop into town looking to topple the mighty Buckeyes in The Horseshoe. MSU quarterback Drew Stanton has established himself as a Heisman Trophy candidate and is looking to guide his team back on the winning track after being derailed by Michigan two weeks ago as the Spartans suffered their first loss of the season. Michigan State coach John L. Smith is a genius when it comes to game planning and has had two weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes who lost a very physical game at Penn State last Saturday night. This game is pivitol for both teams as the loser will likely be eliminated from Big Ten title contention. The Spartans have won at Notre Dame this year and have the confidence to win the big game on the road while the Buckeyes will likely play their best game of the year this week. Kickoff is slated for noon and I would highly recommend watching this game as it will likely be one of the best games of the day as the Spartans will find the Buckeyes to be a hard nut to crack…………..
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Ohio State 27 Michigan State 24
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Oregon State (+16) at #18 Cal Will the Golden Bears be able to rebound quickly from their devastating defeat at UCLA last weekend? Fortunately for Cal, they will be playing at home against a very average Oregon State team. The Beavers had won five consecutive games over the Bears until Cal won at Corvallis last year and look to begin a streak of their own. Both teams average more than 30 points per game, but the edge goes to the Golden Bears as they have the better defense. This will be far from a classic as the Bears batter the Beavers…………..
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Cal 35 Oregon State 20
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Washington (+15) at #20 Oregon The Ducks surprised many people last weekend by manhandling Arizona State in Tempe to run their record to 5-1. Believe it or not, but Oregon actually played defense in that game and displayed a strong running game led by Terrence Whitehead. This week, the Huskies trot into town looking to knock the Ducks out of the Top 25 and win bragging rights in this heated rivalry. Make no mistake, these teams hate each other. How bad do they dislike each other? Two years ago, Oregon played in the Seattle Bowl against Wake Forest and the Washington faithful came out in full force just to cheer against Oregon and helped Wake upset the Ducks. While the Huskies have struggled in the early portion of the season, they have gotten better each game and have become a competitive team under Tyrone Willingham. The UW faithful believe they have a prophet who can lead them to the promised land in quarterback Isaiah Stanback. Stanback is extremely athletic and is working hard to hone his passing skills. If he played on the east coast many pundits would compare him to former Syracuse quarterbacks Marvin Graves or Donovan McNabb. The Huskies have played Notre Dame hard for one half and lost a heart breaker at UCLA two weeks ago in their last outing. If this game weren’t played in Autzen Stadium, Washington might be able to pull off the upset, but the Quack Attack will be too strong at home as the Ducks peck the Huskies………
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Oregon 31 Washington 24
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#21 Auburn (-7½) at Arkansas On paper this looks like an easy game for Auburn. However, the Razorbacks have a history of playing the Tigers tough, especially at Arkansas. The last time Auburn visited Fayetteville, it was Arkansas who was highly ranked and undefeated, but Auburn snuck out of town with a 10-3 victory and the Razorbacks have not been the same going 12-12 in their 24 games since that meeting. Arkansas’ only two victories this season have come against Missouri State and Louisiana-Monroe, not exactly the powers of college football. The Tigers have been steadily improving since their season opening loss at Georgia Tech and are looking to head into next weekends tilt against LSU with a great deal of momentum. That being said, the Razorbacks can make their season with a victory in this game and it will be hard for Auburn to not look ahead to their next game. If Arkansas QB Robert Johnson is able to throw the ball, Auburn could be in for a long day. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, he has been erratic all season so there is no reason to think things will change this week as the Tigers claw their way to a victory over the Razorbacks…….
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Auburn 28 Arkansas 17
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#23 Wisconsin at #22 Minnesota (NL) The Minnesota Golden Gophers are flying high this week after whisking the Little Brown Jug away from Michigan for the first time since 1986. Wisconsin has defeated Michigan as well this season earning the victory in the final seconds in a game three weeks ago. That victory placed the Badgers firmly in the driver’s seat for the Big Ten title, but Wisconsin was toppled last week at Northwestern as they surrendered 51 points to the Wildcats. However, they can still control their destiny as they travel to first place Penn State later this season. This game matches two of the best running backs in college football as Minnesota’s Laurence Maroney and Wisconsin’s Brian Calhoun square off against each other. Minnesota may have won the Little Brown Jug last weekend, but they also paid a price as QB Bryan Cupito and RB Maroney were injured in that contest. While not 100%, both are likely to play this weekend as the loser of this game will be out of the Big Ten title hunt. The home team has won the last four games in this series and it will be five in a row after Saturday’s contest as the Golden Gophers bury the Badgers in Minneapolis………….
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Minnesota 34 Wisconsin 31
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Army at #25 TCU (-23½) Army finds itself in the midst of a 10 game losing streak and just can’t seem to pull of a victory as they have had opportunities to win two of their last three games. That task becomes more difficult this week as the Knights of the Hudson hit the road after a four game home stand to take on 25th ranked TCU. After being the talk of the college football world following their season opening upset win over Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs were dismissed as a quality team the following week when they were upset by SMU. Since that time, TCU has run off four consecutive wins and find themselves ranked for the second time this year. The Horned Frogs have a multi-dimensional offense led by QB Ty Gunn, RB Robert Merrill and WR Cory Rodgers that is explosive and can score from anywhere on the field. Frankly, the Black Knights just don’t have athletes to compete with a team such as TCU. This game should be over by halftime unless the Horned Frogs are looking ahead and that’s not likely as their next opponent is Air Force. The Horned Frogs leap over the Knights in Dallas….
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TCU 45 Army 20
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Pretender or Contender? We find out which of these WVU is Saturday afternoon. Please celebrate safely after the contest!
Let’s Goooooooooooooooooooooo Mountaineers!!!
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